Serie A 2026-27 predictions: who wins the title, who makes the Champions League and who goes down – all our verdicts
The new Serie A season is under way: title race, top-four battle, relegation fight, top scorer, MVP and more. Here are Golden Predictions' nine verdicts for 2026-27, built on our analysts' data.
The wait is over: the Serie A 2026-27 season is under way. Inter defend the title they won with 87 points, chased by an Napoli side now coached by Allegri, Gasperini's Roma, Amorim's Milan, Spalletti's Juventus and a Como team preparing for the first Champions League in their history. Half the league changed manager over the summer, with Sarri at Atalanta, Tedesco at Bologna and Gattuso at Lazio, while Venezia, Monza and Frosinone come up from Serie B.
The opening round runs across the whole weekend: it started with Inter vs Monza and Genoa vs Napoli on Saturday, continues with Frosinone vs Juventus on Sunday and closes on Monday with Roma vs Fiorentina and Bologna vs Lazio. Before a ball had been kicked, though, our analysts locked in their season verdicts. Here they are.
Our nine verdicts for 2026-27
Verdict | Our pick |
|---|---|
Title winner | |
Champions League places | |
Relegated | |
MVP of the season | Francesco Pio Esposito (Inter) |
Best Under 23 | Diego Moreira (Milan) |
Surprise of the season | |
Flop of the season | |
Top scorer | Donyell Malen (Roma) |
First manager sacked | Massimiliano Alvini (Frosinone) |
Why these picks
At the top, the reasoning is simple: Inter kept the strongest squad in the league and the best defence, and nobody closed the gap on their 87 points. Napoli with Allegri and Gasperini's Roma are the designated chasers, and the fourth spot goes to Spalletti's Juventus: in our study of every Serie A bench, his teams have the best defensive record of any coach in the league, and that alone is worth points over a full season. At the bottom, Frosinone have the thinnest squad of the three promoted sides, Lecce keep flirting with the drop and lost ground in the summer market, and Cagliari concede too much to feel safe. The Frosinone situation also explains our sacking pick: Alvini starts the season with the shortest squad and a poor previous top-flight record behind him.
On the individual awards we back the new generation. Francesco Pio Esposito is our MVP bet: his numbers per minute last season were already those of a first-choice striker, and with more space in Inter's attack this is the year of the full breakout. Diego Moreira, the 2005-born winger Milan paid around 50 million to sign from Strasbourg, is our Under 23 ahead of Nico Paz and Kenan Yildiz. The Golden Boot goes to Donyell Malen: no player in Italy produced more expected goals per 90 minutes last season, and he takes Roma's penalties too. Venezia are the surprise, the best-built of the promoted clubs after a 23-million-euro statement signing up front. Bologna are our flop risk instead, not for lack of quality but for the leap into the unknown on the bench: Tedesco has never coached in Serie A, and the squad lost pieces along the way.
Match-by-match tips for every round are on our Serie A predictions page, and for goalscorers, shots and assists there is our dedicated Player Predictions section. The verdicts above will be judged in May: cut this table out and keep it.
