Serie A matchday 4: the goalkeepers and defenders to pick, club by club
Carnesecchi, Butez and Svilar in goal; behind them Bastoni, Bremer, Mancini, Hermoso and the Como block. Every name with the game he plays and our call on it, with its confidence.
Serie A matchday four runs from Friday 11 to Monday 14 September. Below are the recommended names, ordered by fixture, from Friday night to the Monday late game.
Next to each game is our call with its confidence: it tells you which games we expect goals in and which we do not.
Genoa-Frosinone, Saturday at 15:00
Our call on the game: over 1.5 goals, confidence 6 out of 10.
Gabriele Bracaglia (Frosinone). Frosinone come off a 3-2 win over Venezia and are the surprise of this start. Note which way our call points, though: we expect goals here, so this is a pick for attacking returns, not a clean sheet.
Atalanta-Cagliari, Saturday at 20:45
Our call on the game: under 4.5 goals, confidence 7 out of 10.
Marco Carnesecchi (Atalanta). This is the tightest home call of the round: under 4.5 goals at confidence 7, against a Cagliari side that has scored just twice in three rounds.
Giorgio Scalvini (Atalanta). A centre-back facing one of the least prolific attacks in the division.
Odilon Kossounou (Atalanta). Same reading as Scalvini: the game looks closed, and Cagliari have two goals in three rounds.
Lecce-Monza, Sunday at 15:00
Our call on the game: under 3.5 goals, confidence 6 out of 10.
Tiago Gabriel (Lecce). The call is under 3.5 goals, one of the two tightest of the round alongside Lazio against Milan.
Lecce-Monza, Sunday at 15:00
Our call on the game: under 3.5 goals, confidence 6 out of 10.
Eddy Kouadio (Monza). The other side of the same tight game. Monza have one point from three rounds, so this leans on the shape of the fixture rather than the team's form.
Napoli-Bologna, Sunday at 18:00
Our call on the game: Napoli to score, confidence 6 out of 10.
Amir Rrahmani (Napoli). Napoli have just lost 0-1 at home to Arsenal and have a back line to rebuild, but our call says they score: the home side to find the net.
Sassuolo-Juventus, Sunday at 20:45
Our call on the game: under 4.5 goals, confidence 7 out of 10.
Bremer (Juventus). Under 4.5 goals at confidence 7. Sassuolo conceded twice to Bologna last time out, and this is a manageable trip.
Zeki Çelik (Juventus). A full-back in the same defence, in the tightest call of Sunday night.
Torino-Roma, Monday at 18:30
Our call on the game: Roma to score, confidence 7 out of 10.
Mile Svilar (Roma). Roma have the meanest defence in the division: ten scored and one conceded in three rounds.
Mario Hermoso (Roma). He scored the 89th-minute goal that started the comeback against Atalanta. A defender who scores is exactly what you want.
Gianluca Mancini (Roma). Same defence, and our call says Roma score: the away side to find the net, confidence 7.
Como-Parma, Monday at 18:30
Our call on the game: under 4.5 goals, confidence 7 out of 10.
Jean Butez (Como). Como won 4-1 at Genoa and face a Parma side with one goal in three rounds. Under 4.5 goals, confidence 7.
Jacobo Ramón (Como). A centre-back in the same game.
Trevoh Chalobah (Como). The other centre-back, with the same favourable context.
Yan Couto (Como). A right-back in a side that scored four at Genoa.
Álex Valle (Como). A left-back, same reading.
Inter-Udinese, Monday at 20:45
Our call on the game: over 1.5 goals, confidence 7 out of 10.
Alessandro Bastoni (Inter). Udinese arrive at San Siro without half their defence: Solet, Palma and Zanoli are all out.
Manuel Akanji (Inter). Note which way the call points: we expect over 1.5 goals here, so it is not a clean-sheet game.
Yann Bisseck (Inter). The third centre-back in the same defence, same reading.
How these names were picked
We do not invent ratings or performance forecasts. Every player here was checked twice: the club comes from the actual line-ups of the round just played, not from an archive that can be a transfer window out of date, and what he did on the weekend comes from the match report.
Next to each fixture is our call with its confidence: it tells you which games we expect goals in and which we do not. On Monday, with the round closed, we count all of them in the recap, the ones that missed included.
Every game of the round with our calls is on the Serie A page. Individual calls are in player predictions, and the record of settled ones is in the results history.
