Jaro vs HJK Helsinki

In Jakobstad, tenth-placed Jaro on 7 points host HJK Helsinki, fourth on 15 and hunting heavy points to stay attached to the Championship Round zone. The hosts' numbers explain the forecast: 17 goals conceded in ten rounds, the second-worst defence in the league, with just 8 scored and a single win all season. Jaro matches produce goals mainly in their own net: the 5-0 suffered at Gnistan photographs a team that crumbles once it falls behind. HJK are not living their most brilliant season, but they remain the league's historic powerhouse: 13 goals in ten games, an attack that has consistently generated volume on the road, and individual quality superior to anyone in the bottom half. Over 1.5 asks for two total goals, a threshold the meeting of the visitors' attacking potential and the hosts' defensive fragility makes broadly likely: even a simple 2-0 or 1-1 lands the market. The risk is a game flattened by wind and caution, with Jaro entrenched in a low block. Confidence 6 out of 10: the profiles point to a match with at least two goals in it.