Jaro vs Gnistan

In Jakobstad, Jaro host Gnistan in a meeting of two of the Veikkausliiga's most breached defences, and that is the key to the entire forecast. The hosts have conceded 17 goals in ten rounds while scoring just 8; the visitors run at 13 scored and 15 conceded: neither side can defend with any continuity, and both need points to pull away from the Relegation Round zone. This season's earlier meeting is a manifesto: it finished 5-0 to Gnistan in Oulunkylä, one of the widest scorelines of the campaign. Over 1.5 asks for only two total goals, a threshold Gnistan's matches have cleared in almost every outing this season, with an overall average above three goals, and one that Jaro, sterile up front but porous at the back, reach regularly through their own defensive frailty. Sinking this market would require a 0-0 or 1-0 between two teams whose combined fixtures have produced around sixty goals this season. The modest risk is mutual caution in a fixture worth a slice of survival to both. Confidence 7 out of 10: among the week's goals markets, this one has the firmest foundations.