AC Oulu vs IFK Mariehamn

At the Raatti in Oulu, AC Oulu host IFK Mariehamn in the most lopsided fixture of the round. The hosts sit second with 21 points from ten rounds and own a perfect home record: four games, four wins, a single goal conceded, with victories over Jaro, KuPS, TPS and VPS. Mariehamn are bottom, still winless after nine rounds, with the league's worst attack, 5 goals in total, and a defence already breached 14 times. The combined market asks two things: that Oulu avoid defeat, a scenario the two teams' profiles make highly likely, and that the game produce at least two total goals. On the second point, the key statistic is the islanders' away record — beyond the Åland Islands they have almost always conceded at least twice, from the 1-5 in Oulunkylä to the 3-0 defeats in Jakobstad and Seinäjoki. Against the best home record in the league, a home win with two or more total goals is the most natural of outcomes. The risk is the low-scoring draw, given that four of Mariehamn's nine results are meagre stalemates. Confidence 7 out of 10: the technical gap and the numbers are broadly favourable.