Ilves vs TPS Turku

At the Tammelan Stadion in Tampere, Ilves host TPS in a meeting of two opposite seasons so far. The home side sit ninth with 9 points from ten rounds and one number defines their campaign: 21 goals conceded, the worst defence in the league, against 13 scored. Ilves matches run at an average above three total goals, the highest in the Veikkausliiga: the 5-0 suffered in Lahti and the 3-2 defeat in Vaasa describe a team that lives on open games, for better and worse. TPS, fifth with 15 points from nine matches, are a more measured outfit, 11 scored and 8 conceded, but they do not stop playing on the road and will find chances in sequence against such a permeable back line. Over 1.5 asks for just two total goals, a threshold Ilves games have cleared with near-total regularity this season: breaking the market would require a 0-0 or 1-0 completely against the grain of the hosts' numbers. The risk is the visitors' prudent profile and their ability to slow the rhythm. Confidence 6 out of 10: Ilves' defensive porosity remains the dominant argument.