Ferro vs Deportivo Moron

The clásico del oeste between Ferro and Deportivo Morón is the most compelling fixture of the Zona A round: second against first, 28 points versus 31, in a historic derby that fills Caballito on its own. The Verdolaga have built their charge on exemplary solidity, 17 scored and 12 conceded, while the Gallito lead the group with the best attack, 24 goals, shielded by a defence breached just 13 times. On paper, then, two elite back lines and two attacks that live on efficiency rather than volume — the classic context for a contained scoreline. Further compressing goal expectations is the nature of the occasion: derbies with heavyweight points at stake, in Argentina more than anywhere, are played on a knife-edge of tension, with fragmented rhythm and minimal appetite for risk. Under 3.5 captures this double track, statistical and emotional. Confidence nonetheless stops at 5 out of 10 for a precise reason: when the group's best attack and a rivalry this fierce share a pitch, the goal that opens the game can transform it, and top-of-the-table clashes occasionally betray their averages. A well-founded forecast, but a derby one: caution is an integral part of the assessment.