Club A. Guemes vs Gimnasia Jujuy

In Santiago del Estero, Güemes host Gimnasia de Jujuy in one of the round's boldest forecasts: the 1X double chance against the second-placed side. But the reasons exist and deserve stating. The Jujuy Lobo, 27 points from fifteen games, have built almost their entire tally at the 23 de Agosto, while away from home their output drops markedly and the defence, 18 goals conceded overall, shows cracks that provincial opponents have often exploited. Güemes, twelfth with 19 points, are a home team through and through: their 16-goal attack produces nearly everything at the Arturo Miranda, where Santiago's intensity and heat weigh on visitors, and their dreadful overall defensive numbers, 23 conceded, describe a side that lives on home advantage. The northern journey, the climate and a keenly felt regional rivalry complete a context that historically levels the difference in quality. The market covers the home win and the draw: breaking it requires an away victory from a team that has won little and conceded plenty on the road. The risk remains obvious — the gap in squad quality — which is why confidence stops at 6 out of 10: a home-factor forecast, in a category where the home factor is often the most reliable argument going.