Acassuso vs San Miguel

A northern Greater Buenos Aires derby between Acassuso and San Miguel, two sides locked in mid-table in Zona A and separated by just two points. The newly promoted hosts have lived a two-faced season: top of the table in the early rounds, then a long slide to twelfth with 18 points, 11 goals scored and 15 conceded. The Trueno Verde sit eleventh on 20 with an unmistakable identity: eight draws, just 12 goals scored, and a devotion to the narrow scoreline that has accompanied them all campaign. Geographic proximity and mutual familiarity add the classic lower-league derby ingredients: exaggerated tactical caution, fear of opening up, very few chances conceded. Under 3.5 captures the meeting of two of the group's least prolific attacks in a game both will approach with not losing as the priority. The averages speak plainly: San Miguel's matches produce under two total goals, Acassuso's barely more. The risk is a night of surprising attacking courage, or an early goal forcing the mentally more fragile hosts to chase. Confidence 6 out of 10: every indicator points to a low-scoring contest.