Nations League squads: Palmer, Rashford and Mainoo in question for England as Porro, Malen and Risser pull out

England's players report to St George's Park this week with three names in question. As of midday on Monday 21 September the Football Association had announced no changes to the 27 Thomas Tuchel named on 18 September. Some reports in the English press say Cole Palmer has pulled out, others that he is expected to, and that Manchester United's Marcus Rashford and Kobbie Mainoo could follow; none of it had been confirmed by the FA at that point. The reasons given differ from one report to the next: workload management for some, a minor muscle problem for others.

Elsewhere, Nations League squads have already started to change. Spain lost Pedro Porro, the Netherlands lost Roma's Donyell Malen and Justin Kluivert, France lost goalkeeper Robin Risser, and Italy lost Bryan Cristante. Below are the changes so far and our calls on the first round of games.

England squad: Palmer, Rashford and Mainoo

Palmer played the full 90 minutes of Chelsea's 3-0 defeat at Brentford on Friday (our call was at least two goals, confidence 7 out of 10: correct). Rashford went off after 77 minutes of Sunday's 1-1 draw at Fulham and Mainoo after 80 (our call was under 4.5 goals, confidence 7 out of 10: correct); Michael Carrick said afterwards that Rashford had a problem and that he did not yet know how serious it was. At midday on Monday all three were still officially in the squad. Reports name Nottingham Forest's Morgan Gibbs-White, left out on the 18th, as the likely replacement for Palmer.

Palmer had been left out of the World Cup squad and was recalled on the 18th. At his press conference that day Tuchel said: “Cole needs to step up when he comes and he needs to show these kind of numbers to get his place, keep his shirt and justify the nomination.” In an interview on the FA's own channels he had also said: “Cole starts every game for Chelsea – he’s a regular starter, he decides matches, he has his numbers back in his game.”

Dean Henderson, Jordan Henderson, Reece James, Djed Spence and John Stones, all at the World Cup, were left out injured. Stones is now at Inter, who reported tightness in his left hamstring; he missed Saturday's 2-2 at Roma, as we flagged in our Serie A injury and suspension round-up (for Roma-Inter, our call was the away side to score, confidence 7 out of 10: correct). Phil Foden, Morgan Gibbs-White, Adam Wharton and Harry Maguire were left out by choice. The only Serie A player in the squad is Como's Trevoh Chalobah.

Goalkeepers: Jordan Pickford (Everton), Jason Steele (Brighton), James Trafford (Leeds).

Defenders: Trent Alexander-Arnold (Real Madrid), Jarrad Branthwaite (Everton), Trevoh Chalobah (Como), Marc Guéhi (Manchester City), Lewis Hall (Newcastle), Ezri Konsa (Arsenal), Tino Livramento (Newcastle), Nico O'Reilly (Manchester City), Jarell Quansah (Bayer Leverkusen).

Midfielders: Elliot Anderson (Manchester City), Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), Myles Lewis-Skelly (Arsenal), Kobbie Mainoo (Manchester United), Cole Palmer (Chelsea), Declan Rice (Arsenal), Alex Scott (Bournemouth).

Forwards: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds), Eberechi Eze (Arsenal), Anthony Gordon (Barcelona), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), Rio Ngumoha (Liverpool), Marcus Rashford (Manchester United), Morgan Rogers (Chelsea), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal).

England host world champions Spain at a sold-out Wembley on Saturday 26 September, 19:45 UK time. Then come Czechia in Prague on the 29th, Croatia in Rijeka on 3 October (17:00 UK time) and Czechia again at Wembley on the 6th. For the Spain game, our call is under 4.5 goals, confidence 7 out of 10. Our calls on the later games will be on the site closer to kick-off.

Spain: Porro out, Fresneda in

The Spanish federation took Porro out of Luis de la Fuente's squad on Saturday 19 September after he was hurt inside the first 20 minutes of Tottenham's 3-2 home defeat by Aston Villa (our call was under 4.5 goals, confidence 7 out of 10: wrong). On Sunday De la Fuente called up Sporting CP right-back Iván Fresneda, who had been with the under-21s. Dean Huijsen, sent off after 52 minutes of Atlético Madrid's 2-1 derby win over Real Madrid (our call was under 4.5 goals, confidence 6 out of 10: correct), will serve that ban in La Liga and is available for Wembley. Spain gather at Las Rozas on Tuesday 22 September.

The Netherlands: Malen and Kluivert out, Brobbey in the squad

Xavi Hernández, who named his first squad as the Netherlands head coach on 18 September, made two changes on Sunday evening. Malen and Bournemouth's Kluivert withdrew with injuries, and the federation did not say what kind. Malen had played all of Roma's 2-2 draw with Inter. In come PSV's Guus Til, who scored twice in a 3-2 defeat at Twente on Sunday (our call was the away side to score, confidence 7 out of 10: correct), and AZ's Mexx Meerdink, who got the only goal in a 1-0 win over Telstar (our call was at least two goals, confidence 6 out of 10: wrong).

Sunderland striker Brian Brobbey, named in Xavi's squad on 18 September, arrives off the back of Sunday's hat-trick at the Etihad, in the 12th, 33rd and 59th minutes of a 5-3 defeat by Manchester City (our call was at least two goals, confidence 6 out of 10: correct). PSV's Ruben van Bommel wins a first call-up. He is the son of Belgium head coach Mark van Bommel, who found out during his own press conference and said he was proud. For the Netherlands against Germany in Amsterdam on Thursday 24th, our call is at least two goals, confidence 7 out of 10. For Serbia against the Netherlands in Belgrade on the 27th, our call is under 4.5 goals, confidence 6 out of 10.

Germany: no withdrawals, Woltemade in the second group

Germany have reported no withdrawals. On 17 September Jürgen Klopp named 44 players in two groups: 24 for the Netherlands (24 September) and Greece (27th), then 20 more join for Serbia on 1 October and the return game in Greece on the 4th, while most of the first group go back to their clubs. Inter's Yann Bisseck is in the first group; Juventus striker Nick Woltemade, who scored his first goal for the club from the spot in the 5-0 Europa League win over NEC on 17 September (our call was at least two goals, confidence 6 out of 10: correct), is in the second and will not play in Amsterdam. For Germany against Greece in Augsburg on the 27th, our call is at least two goals, confidence 7 out of 10.

France: Risser out, a first call-up for Como's Butez

At 21:24 on Sunday the French federation said Lens goalkeeper Robin Risser was “amoindri physiquement” (not fully fit) after talks between the national team's medical staff and the club's, and would miss the camp. He had played all of Lens's 2-1 defeat at Monaco on Friday (our call was at least two goals, confidence 7 out of 10: correct). Zinedine Zidane replaced him with Jean Butez, the 31-year-old Como goalkeeper who came through at Lille, in the first call-up of his career. He joins his Como captain Lucas Da Cunha, also called up for the first time, alongside Mike Maignan and Guillaume Restes. Kylian Mbappé captains the 23, seven of whom now play in Serie A. Roma's Manu Koné scored twice against Inter on Saturday.

France open in Kocaeli on Friday 25th: for Turkey against France, our call is under 4.5 goals, confidence 6 out of 10.

Belgium: 28 players for Van Bommel

Van Bommel, the former AC Milan midfielder in charge since 15 August, named 28 players on 18 September, six of them from Serie A: Kevin De Bruyne, Mandela Keita, Koni De Winter, Diego Moreira, Arthur Theate and Charles De Ketelaere. Moreira came off the bench to score Milan's third in a 3-0 win over Lecce on Sunday (our call was under 4.5 goals, confidence 7 out of 10: correct). Dodi Lukebakio, who scored at San Siro on 16 September in Benfica's 2-0 win over AC Milan (our call was at least two goals, confidence 6 out of 10: correct), is in as well. Thibaut Courtois will skip the Nations League after he and Van Bommel agreed on it when the coach visited him in Madrid, partly because of minor physical complaints. Leandro Trossard is in the squad but a doubt after Beşiktaş reported a traumatic bone oedema in his heel on the 19th. For Belgium against France in Brussels on the 28th, our call is at least two goals, confidence 6 out of 10.

Italy: Cristante out, Ricci in

Italy gathered at Coverciano on Sunday evening. Roberto Mancini, back for a second spell, named 34 players on 18 September, nine of them uncapped, with Nicolò Fagioli, Nicolò Zaniolo and Rolando Mandragora recalled. On Sunday the Italian federation announced that Cristante, who played all of Roma-Inter, was unavailable with a physical problem; Como's Samuele Ricci replaces him. Manuel Locatelli, Federico Chiesa and Chelsea's Marco Palestra are injured, and there is no place for Mateo Retegui or Mattia Zaccagni. The federation had scheduled Mancini's first press conference for 14:00 Italian time on Monday 21 September.

Goalkeepers: Marco Carnesecchi (Atalanta), Gianluigi Donnarumma (Manchester City), Massimo Pessina (Bologna), Guglielmo Vicario (Juventus).

Defenders: Honest Ahanor (Crystal Palace), Alessandro Bastoni (Inter), Riccardo Calafiori (Arsenal), Diego Coppola (Paris FC), Giovanni Di Lorenzo (Napoli), Federico Dimarco (Inter), Daniele Ghilardi (Roma), Michael Kayode (Brentford), Eddy Kouadio (Monza), Gianluca Mancini (Roma), Giorgio Scalvini (Atalanta).

Midfielders: Nicolò Barella (Inter), Issa Doumbia (Sporting CP), Nicolò Fagioli (Fiorentina), Davide Frattesi (Lazio), Rolando Mandragora (Torino), Samuele Ricci (Como), Alessandro Romano (Cagliari), Sandro Tonali (Tottenham).

Forwards: Nicolò Cambiaghi (Bologna), Francesco Pio Esposito (Inter), Sebastiano Esposito (Sassuolo), Samuele Inacio (Borussia Dortmund), Moise Kean (Como), Daniel Maldini (Cagliari), Giacomo Raspadori (Atalanta), Gianluca Scamacca (Atalanta), Antonio Vergara (Napoli), Nicolò Zaniolo (Udinese), Mohamed Alì Zoma (Nürnberg).

Daniel Maldini scored the only goal of Udinese-Cagliari on Saturday, which leaves Cagliari on 12 points, one behind Roma, Inter and Lazio, who are level on 13. For Udinese-Cagliari, our call was under 4.5 goals, confidence 7 out of 10: correct. Italy host Belgium in Rome on Friday 25th, then go to Bursa to face Turkey on the 28th, to Saint-Denis for France on 2 October and back to Bologna for Turkey on the 5th. For Italy against Belgium, our call is at least two goals, confidence 7 out of 10; for Turkey against Italy, our call is at least two goals, confidence 6 out of 10.

Portugal, Wales and how the groups work

Jorge Jesus has made no changes to his 25, who were due to report to Oeiras on Monday 21 September; Craig Bellamy's Wales are without injured centre-backs Joe Rodon and Dylan Lawlor. For Portugal against Wales at the Alvalade on Thursday 24th, our call is under 4.5 goals, confidence 6 out of 10. Three days later Portugal are in Oslo: for Norway against Portugal, our call is at least two goals, confidence 6 out of 10. For Denmark against Wales in Copenhagen on the same day, our call is under 4.5 goals, confidence 7 out of 10.

League A has four groups: A1 France, Italy, Belgium and Turkey; A2 Germany, the Netherlands, Serbia and Greece; A3 Spain, Croatia, England and Czechia; A4 Portugal, Denmark, Norway and Wales. In each group two pairs meet twice in this window: Italy and Turkey, France and Belgium, Germany and Greece, the Netherlands and Serbia, England and Czechia, Spain and Croatia, Portugal and Norway, Wales and Denmark. The last two rounds are in November. This time only the two worst fourth-placed teams go straight down; the two worst third-placed teams and the two best fourth-placed teams go into play-offs with League B runners-up.

The results of our calls on Milan-Lecce, Manchester City-Sunderland, Fulham-Manchester United, Atlético-Real Madrid, Twente-PSV and AZ-Telstar are not yet recorded on the site: we worked them out from the 90-minute score.

Every game with our calls is on the Nations League page. The record of settled calls is in the results history, and our calls on individual players are in player predictions.