Italy vs Belgium prediction and predicted line-ups: Nations League, 25 September 2026 at the Stadio Olimpico

Roberto Mancini's second spell as Italy head coach starts at the Stadio Olimpico on Friday 25 September, against a Belgium side led for the first time by Mark van Bommel. It is the opening game of the 2026/27 Nations League for both. Italy have missed a third straight World Cup, beaten on penalties by Bosnia and Herzegovina in the play-off final on 31 March; Belgium went out of the World Cup in the quarter-finals, 2-1 to Spain.

Italy vs Belgium: kick-off time and venue

Italy vs Belgium kicks off at 19:45 UK time (20:45 in Rome) on Friday 25 September at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. It is Group A1 of League A in the Nations League, with France and Turkey, and the top two reach the quarter-finals in March 2027. The referee is Germany's Daniel Siebert, with an all-German team and Bastian Dankert on VAR. The Italian federation has invited 4,000 children from schools and youth clubs in and around Rome. Italy then travel to Bursa to play Turkey on Monday 28 September.

Team news

Mancini is without Alessandro Bastoni, suspended after his red card in the play-off final in Zenica: he is in the squad but cannot play on Friday. Bryan Cristante pulled out before the squad met up and was replaced by Samuele Ricci; Federico Dimarco, who has not recovered from a physical problem picked up with Inter, has left the camp, and Aston Villa's Matteo Ruggeri has taken his place. Giorgio Scalvini sat out training on Tuesday 22 September as a precaution after a knock to the ankle in Atalanta's game against Juventus (our call was no more than four goals, confidence 7 out of 10: correct).

Belgium are without Thibaut Courtois, who is skipping the Nations League by agreement with Van Bommel, and the injured Amadou Onana and Jérémy Doku. Leandro Trossard, who joined Beşiktaş in the summer, has a bone bruise in his heel and missed training on Monday and Tuesday; the Belgian press say the decision for Rome will be taken at the last minute. The other 27 trained in Tubize on Tuesday, where Napoli's Kevin De Bruyne had this to say about the opposition: “L'Italie doit un peu changer son état d'esprit” (Italy need to change their mindset a little), adding that they are going through a generational change.

Italy vs Belgium predicted line-ups

Mancini has not named his side, but he worked with a 4-3-3 in Monday's first session, and Wednesday's Italian previews agree on nine names: Italy (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo or Kayode, Gianluca Mancini, Coppola, Calafiori; Barella, Romano, Tonali; Zaniolo or Vergara, Pio Esposito, Raspadori. Giovanni Di Lorenzo is back in contention at right-back, where Brentford's Michael Kayode would be making his debut. Paris FC's Diego Coppola is favourite to replace Bastoni, especially with Scalvini's knock. Cagliari's Alessandro Romano looks set for his debut at the base of midfield ahead of Ricci and Mandragora, and Davide Frattesi could come in for either of the other two. The real doubt is on the right of the attack, between Nicolò Zaniolo, whose fitness Mancini is assessing, and Napoli's Antonio Vergara. Giacomo Raspadori is ahead of Daniel Maldini, and Moise Kean is the alternative to Pio Esposito.

There is no Belgium XI that holds up. Only one full prediction is going round, copied from site to site, and it is a 4-2-3-1, while Van Bommel said on 18 September: “Ik wil een 4-3-3 spelen. Dat is de startsituatie” (I want to play 4-3-3. That is the starting point). The fixed points are Senne Lammens in goal, De Bruyne in midfield, as a 10, an 8 or even a 6 according to his coach, and captain Youri Tielemans. Elsewhere De Winter, Debast, Mechele and Theate are competing at centre-back, Castagne, De Cuyper and Seys at full-back, Lavia, Raskin and Vanaken in midfield, Lukebakio, Godts and Fofana out wide, De Ketelaere and Lukaku up front. Van Bommel has already said Lukaku will not start all four games. The official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

Head-to-head and form

Italy have not lost to Belgium since November 2015, 3-1 in a friendly in Brussels. Since then they have won four and drawn one: 2-0 at Euro 2016, 2-1 in the quarter-finals of the Euro they won in 2021, 2-1 in the 2021 Nations League third-place play-off, then 2-2 at the Olimpico on 10 October 2024 and 1-0 in Brussels on 14 November 2024, with a goal from Sandro Tonali. Two of those wins came with Mancini in charge.

In their last competitive games Italy beat Israel 3-0 and Moldova 2-0, lost 4-1 to Norway at San Siro, then beat Northern Ireland 2-0 in the play-off semi-final and drew 1-1 in Zenica before the shoot-out. In June, under caretaker Silvio Baldini, they won two friendlies 1-0, against Luxembourg and Greece, both settled by Pio Esposito, who has 5 goals in 9 caps. His brother Sebastiano, who is still uncapped, could make his debut against Belgium, where he played for Anderlecht. At the World Cup Belgium won their group, beat Senegal 3-2 and the United States 4-1, with two goals from Charles De Ketelaere, before losing to Spain.

Our Italy vs Belgium prediction

Our call is at least two goals, confidence 7 out of 10. Four of the last five meetings between the two sides produced at least two goals, and Belgium scored 13 in their last five World Cup games. Belgium's squad includes six Serie A players: De Bruyne of Napoli, Keita of Parma, De Winter and Moreira of AC Milan, Theate of Bologna and De Ketelaere of Atalanta. The other 24 games of the round are in our matchday one preview, and the full squads in our squad round-up.

Every game with our calls is on the Nations League page. The record of settled calls is in the results history, and our calls on individual players are in player predictions.