Vitoria vs Vasco

Home advantage against a generous back line Vitoria host Vasco in a lower-table Brasileirão clash, and the pick asks the hosts to score at least once. The opponent's profile helps considerably. Why I read it as solid Vasco are among the biggest conceders in the competition, and Vitoria in front of their own crowd, without a devastating attack, still find the net with fair regularity. In a league averaging around two and two-thirds goals a game, a home goal is the most natural outcome: I read it around 80%. The confidence of 6 looks well supported by the visitors' defensive numbers. A preview with Vitoria favoured to score.