Toulouse vs Hamburger SVPrediction, probable lineups, recent form & season stats

A final test before the season, with two sides who prepared against decent opposition. Toulouse have won three of their last six at home, including 2-1 against Real Sociedad, 2-1 against Lyon and 1-0 against Lorient, scoring 1.2 a game and conceding 1.2. Hamburg have swung away from home: 3-1 at Heidenheim and 2-1 against Eintracht Frankfurt, but also 1-3 with Werder Bremen and 0-4 with Stuttgart. Two defences that concede The figure behind the call is the visitors' defensive record: 1.8 goals conceded a trip, 90% of their away games over 1.5 and 76% seeing both teams score. Toulouse are tighter at home, with only 64% of their games over 1.5 and 31% ending without a goal. What is missing There is no head-to-head between the two and the nature of the test lowers the value of the numbers: wide rotation, pre-season tempo and priorities other than the result. It helps that Hamburg's sample is wide, fourteen away games. The verdict: two goals are needed. 90% of Hamburg away games cleared that mark and the two combined average around three goals. Toulouse's often short home games are the note of caution. I read it around 79%. My take: Hamburg always concede on the road, and that is where the count moves.