Switzerland vs Argentina

Kansas City, the reigning champions against the Swiss surprise At Arrowhead in Kansas City, Switzerland face something they have not lived through in seventy-two years: a World Cup quarter-final, their first since the home tournament of 1954. Across from them stand world champions Argentina, chasing a repeat achieved in history only by Brazil between 1958 and 1962. The Swiss knocked out Colombia the hard way, 4-3 on penalties after a goalless stalemate that lasted one hundred and twenty minutes; the Albiceleste, meanwhile, walked a tightrope against Egypt in Atlanta, two goals down before overturning everything late with three unanswered strikes, 3-2 at the final whistle. Why the goals should come The pick asks for at least two total goals, and Argentina's run pulls entirely that way: the Albiceleste's two knockout games have produced ten goals in all, five per match, and the group stage brought wins over Algeria and Austria with five scored and none conceded. Messi leads the tournament's scoring chart with eight goals and drives a side that, once it clicks, rarely leaves the pitch without scoring. Switzerland, for their part, won Group B ahead of Canada, but conceded at least once in each of their three first-phase games: 1-1 with Qatar, 4-1 over Bosnia, 2-1 over Canada. A serious defence, not an impenetrable one. A one-sided history, but a goal-shy one The head-to-head tells two different stories. The first: Switzerland have never beaten Argentina, seven meetings without a win since 1966. The second, less comfortable for this pick: whenever the two have met at a World Cup, goals were scarce. In 1966 it ended 2-0 to Argentina, and in 2014 it took a Di María flash in extra time for a 1-0, with the ninety minutes closing goalless. And today's Switzerland have just shown against Colombia that they can hold out for two hours without conceding. The verdict: the Over favoured, with a 90-minute caveat Clarity matters here: the market applies to regulation time, so a 0-0 or 1-0 at the ninetieth would sink it even if extra time later opened up. That is the concrete risk of a game in which the Swiss will think first about keeping the ball away from Messi rather than attacking. That said, the current Argentina run at high scoring rates, the Swiss defence has conceded in almost every game of this tournament, and a side forced to chase a result tends to open up as the minutes pass. Weighing both sides of the scale, I estimate clearing the goal-and-a-half line at around 70%, in line with the stated confidence of 7. My read: a game that gets unlocked and passes two goals, with the locked 2014 precedent as the only real ghost.