Sunderland vs RennesPrediction, probable lineups, recent form & season stats

A tune-up friendly with a data problem: Rennes have only one recent away game on record, the 3-3 with Galatasaray, too short a sample to draw any trend from. Sunderland are well documented: twelve home games with 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, only 41% of those matches passing two goals and 54% ending without a goal. A side who plays short games Sunderland's last six at home describe their register well: 0-1 with Leeds, 2-1 against Chelsea, 0-0 with Manchester United, 1-0 against Tottenham, 0-1 with Brighton and an isolated 0-5 with Nottingham Forest. Five of those six stayed inside three goals in total, with a defence that concedes little and an attack that produces even less. Why the confidence is the lowest With one reference game for Rennes and no head-to-head, the estimate rests almost entirely on one of the two sides. In a friendly the line-ups change at half-time and the tempo is not that of a league game: all reasons not to push further. The verdict: the ceiling is three goals. Sunderland pass that mark at home in little over a third of their matches and their overall average stays low. Rennes's only outing, a 3-3, points the other way, and that is a limit worth stating. I read it around 76%. My take: Sunderland tend to close games down, but the reference points here are very thin.