Spain vs Saudi Arabia

A wounded heavyweight: Spain must respond at once... Group H's favourites stumbled at the first bend. Against Cape Verde in Atlanta, Spain took 27 shots, put seven on target and still could not beat Vozinha, the 40-year-old goalkeeper who stole the show with a string of saves. That 0-0 hurts, because it leaves Luis de la Fuente's side needing to beat Saudi Arabia to keep their last-16 path at the 2026 World Cup clear. The recent numbers still describe a healthy Roja: unbeaten in their last five, with a 3-0 over Serbia, a 1-1 with Iraq, a 0-0 with Egypt, a 3-1 friendly win over Peru on 9 June and then the Cape Verde wall. Seven goals scored, two conceded — a team that creates plenty but ran into a goalkeeper's perfect night in Atlanta. Across from them stands a Saudi Arabia that arrived with a surprise point: ahead through Abdulelah Al-Amri on 41 minutes from a set-piece scramble, pegged back by Maxi Araújo on 80, and rescued repeatedly by an outstanding Al-Owais. The Saudis lived on defending deep and breaking, and that script is unlikely to change. What the history does, and doesn't, tell us The record reads Spanish: three meetings since 2006, three Roja wins, including a 1-0 in the only World Cup encounter, at Germany 2006. It is thin and by now dated, and none of those games ever questioned the pecking order. More than the history, the present matters here: a clearly superior Spain, and a Saudi defence that held against Uruguay only thanks to a goalkeeper in inspired form. Yamal, Pedri and the real absentees One myth is worth clearing up: Spain are not ravaged by injuries, whatever has been written. Laporte, Llorente and Oyarzabal all started against Cape Verde, Dani Olmo came off the bench and Lamine Yamal entered on 71 minutes with instant intent: five dribbles attempted, more than anyone else on the pitch. Pedri, booked, simply has to avoid one yellow too many, but he is fully available and remains the midfield's guiding light. The meaningful absences carry other names: Fermín López, out with a broken foot, and Dani Carvajal, left out of the squad, while Nico Williams's fitness still needs watching. On the Saudi side there are no lineup worries: the same central pairing seen against Uruguay should sit in front of Al-Owais. The verdict: Spain ahead, but mind the goals Two ideas sit on the table: Spain not losing, and a game with at least two goals. The first is rock solid — a huge quality gap, three wins from three in the head-to-head and the pride of a side desperate to put things right — and I'd put it around 88-90%. The second is finer. A team that takes 27 shots without scoring has a finishing issue that cannot be waved away; at the same time, it is hard to imagine Spain blank again against a defence less watertight than Cape Verde's, and Saudi Arabia have just shown they can strike from set pieces. I see two goals around 60-62%, with one clear risk in plain view: another frustrating night in front of goal that freezes the score at 1-0 or 0-0. That is why the overall confidence stays medium rather than high.