Quilmes vs Gimnasia Jujuy

A pick that runs against the league's nature Quilmes host Gimnasia Jujuy, a side at the top of their zone, and the tip asks the visitors to score at least once. Here an uncomfortable thing must be said: in the Primera Nacional, away from home, a great many sides fail to score at all. Where the risk sits With a league average below two total goals a game, away attacks draw a blank in almost half their matches. Gimnasia Jujuy are among the healthier sides and that lifts the estimate, but the context pulls the other way: I read it around 58%, barely more than a coin flip. To my eye the confidence of 6 is high, because this is the pick that clashes most with the competition's DNA. I won't push the read past what the numbers allow.