Ponte Preta vs Criciuma

The second force visiting a wrecked defence Ponte Preta are going through a dreadful spell at the foot of Brazil's Serie B, with by far the worst defence in the competition. Criciuma, firmly among the leaders and with one of the sturdiest back lines, start as favourites. The pick combines an away win with a maximum of three total goals. Why the combo makes sense Criciuma often win by a single goal, using defensive order rather than running riot: for that reason an away win with few goals fits their DNA, and Ponte Preta's weakness reinforces the read. The two legs together still lower the probability: I read it around 56%. A scenario consistent with the quality, with the confidence of 7 perhaps a touch high for a two-condition combination.