Mainz vs BournemouthPrediction, probable lineups, recent form & season stats

A final run-out before the season, with two sides who prepared their summers very differently. Mainz have won all four games on their own ground, scoring three a game and conceding just 0.2: 4-0 against Paris FC, 1-0 against Shabab Al Ahli, 3-0 against Holstein Kiel and 4-1 against Kaiserslautern. Bournemouth have faced strong opposition away with good returns: 2-2 with Betis, 5-2 against Augsburg, 1-1 with Nottingham Forest, 1-0 at Fulham, 2-1 against Newcastle and 2-1 against Arsenal. Two sides who score, with very different defences The contrast sits at the back. Mainz kept a clean sheet in three home games out of four and have barely conceded, while Bournemouth ship 1.3 a trip and see both teams score in 74% of their away games. Going forward they look alike: three goals a game for the Germans, 1.9 for the English side. How much a short sample weighs Mainz have only four home games behind them and there is no head-to-head, so the read leans on Bournemouth, better documented across fifteen trips. In a friendly the rotation counts too: many sides change eleven players at half-time. The verdict: two goals are needed. 75% of Mainz home games and 80% of Bournemouth away games cleared that mark, and the two combined produce close to five goals a game. Confidence stays contained because of the hosts' short sample. I read it around 84%. My take: two attacks in confidence, this should move even through the substitutions.