Longford vs Wexford

Home advantage paired with a goals requirement Longford host Wexford in an Irish First Division clash. The pick combines the hosts avoiding defeat with at least two total goals. Where the risk sits Longford avoiding defeat, in front of their own crowd and against a Wexford with an imperfect defence, is plausible. The delicate point is the two-goal threshold: both have attacks with contained numbers, and the game could stay more closed than expected. Stacking the two conditions lowers the probability: I read it around 52%, barely more than a coin flip. To my eye the confidence of 7 is high, because the real unknown is whether enough goals come. A preview with the hosts favoured to avoid defeat.