KR Reykjavik vs Akranes

The round closes at the KR-völlur, where second-placed KR host Akranes' ÍA in the most classic of Iceland's west-coast derbies. The market asks only for a home goal, and the numbers make it the most probable event of the entire match-day. KR own the league's most prolific attack, 38 goals in ten games, an average of nearly four per match, and they have scored in every single outing this season: at home they have posted the 4-2 over FH, the 5-3 against KA, the 3-2 over Keflavík, the 3-1 against Valur and the 5-2 over Þór, never fewer than two goals on their own ground. ÍA are a respectable side, sixth with a defence breached 16 times, but on the road they have already conceded four to Víkingur and three to Fram in the Reykjavík 3-3: against the league's best attack, the clean-sheet scenario looks statistically remote. Sinking this market would require KR's first offensive blank of the season, against opponents who are hardly the most hermetic faced so far. The risk is confined to the imponderables of a heated derby. Confidence 7 out of 10: a very high-frequency event on rock-solid foundations.