Kauno Zalgiris vs Suduva

Two solid sides, with the away-result unknown Kauno Zalgiris, among the best in the Lithuanian A Lyga, host a Suduva also high in the table and used to many draws. The pick combines the visitors avoiding defeat with a maximum of three total goals. Where the risk sits The Under side is favoured by both sides' defensive solidity, while Suduva's pull toward the draw helps the avoiding-defeat leg. The delicate point stays the away result against a big side at home: stacking the two legs lowers the overall probability. I read it around 48%, a genuine coin flip. To my eye the confidence of 6 is slightly high, because the real knot is Suduva avoiding defeat at Kauno's ground.