Jelgava vs RFS

The leaders away, but with an attack that runs riot Jelgava host RFS, the Latvian Virsliga leaders with the best defence in the league but also one of the most prolific attacks. The pick asks the visitors not to lose and the game to stay under four goals: two conditions that don't fully agree here. Where the risk sits RFS avoiding defeat is almost a given, given their superiority. The delicate point is Under 3.5: against a defence as fragile as Jelgava's, the leaders can run riot and clear three goals, especially in a high-scoring league. That's exactly what lowers the combination's value: I read it around 56%. To my eye the confidence of 6 is a touch high, because the real unknown is a heavy home defeat.