Ilves vs Lahti

A tight ceiling against the shakiest defence Ilves host Lahti in the Veikkausliiga, and the pick asks the visitors to stay under two goals. The context, though, pulls against it more than it seems. Where the risk sits Lahti are no prolific side, and that helps, but across the way stands the most vulnerable back line in the competition's top half: Ilves concede close to two goals a game, and their matches open up very easily. Asking the visitors to stop at one against a defence like this is a shakier proposition than expected: I read it around 62%, just above even. To my eye the confidence of 6 is high, because the hosts' defence is the real risk factor.