Freiburg vs Crystal PalacePrediction, probable lineups, recent form & season stats

A final test before the season starts, for two sides arriving from very different summers. Freiburg have taken positive results from five of their last six at home, including a 4-1 against RB Leipzig and a 3-1 against Braga, and on their own ground they average 2.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Crystal Palace have gathered far less away from London: in their last six trips they won only at Fulham, then drew 0-0 with Famalicao and lost three by 0-3, against Bromley, Manchester City and Bournemouth. Two attacks moving at different speeds The figure that separates them is output away from their own ground. Freiburg score more than two a game at home and are blanked in only 13% of those matches. Palace stop at 1.1 on the road and finish without a goal in a third of their trips, even though 86% of those games passed 1.5: the goals do come, often from the wrong end. What counts and what does not in a friendly These numbers span the end of a season and a pre-season, so they carry the caution friendlies demand: wide rotation, different tempo, priorities that are not the result. There is no head-to-head record between the two, which removes a useful reference. What stands is that both cleared 2.5 in over two thirds of their recent games. The verdict: two goals are needed. 85% of Freiburg home games and 86% of Palace away games passed that mark, and the two combined produce over three goals a game. The nature of a friendly, with line-ups changing at half-time, is the reason not to push further. I read it around 82%. My take: a trial run with wide spaces, Freiburg should open it and Palace have enough to answer.