France vs Spain

Dallas, the tie of the tournament between two walls This is the semifinal everyone was waiting for: France against Spain at the Dallas Stadium in Arlington, with the 2026 World Cup final a step away. The numbers tell of two near-perfect juggernauts. France have won all six games conceding a single goal, saw off Paraguay 1-0 in the last 16 and beat Morocco 2-0 in the quarters, a rematch of the 2022 semifinal. Spain are unbeaten in six and also breached only once, with a record defensive shut-out streak later ended only by Belgium in the 2-1 quarter-final. Why it will be a locked game Here the two most solid defences of the entire tournament meet: both have conceded just one goal in six games, a figure that says everything about the kind of tie. When two sides defend this carefully and know each other this well, the risk of a tense, low-scoring game is real, with the opening ninety minutes often short of clear chances. It's the ideal context for a draw in regulation to become anything but a remote prospect. The duel of the stars Up front, though, both have the man to break the deadlock. Kylian Mbappé leads the scoring chart with eight goals, alongside an Olise dishing out assists in bunches, while Spain lean on Lamine Yamal's talent and a possession game that wears the opponent down. It's the classic game where a single flash can be worth a final, and precisely for that reason neither will want to open up too early. The verdict: France to avoid a regulation defeat The pick covers France not losing, that is the win or the draw, and it's a read on solid ground: referring to the ninety minutes, it only fails if Spain win in regulation. In a game between two defences like these, with a draw at the ninetieth anything but unlikely and extra time always around the corner, that detail matters. The bookmakers make France narrow favourites, and their solidity makes them the side hardest to take an outright win from. I read it around 68%, just above the confidence of 6. My read: a balanced, closed game, with France unlikely to leave beaten inside 90 minutes.