Fortaleza vs Novorizontino

A top clash with a trickier combo than expected Fortaleza host Novorizontino, the leaders of Brazil's Serie B with the best attack in the competition. The pick asks the visitors not to lose and the game to stay under four goals, but Novorizontino's attacking edge makes the whole thing less clean. Where the risk sits On one hand, Novorizontino avoiding defeat is far from guaranteed against a strong home Fortaleza; on the other, the presence of the league's best attack makes Under 3.5 slightly less safe than usual. Combined, the two conditions bring the combination just below even: I read it around 48%. To my eye the confidence of 7 is optimistic for a tip pairing an uncertain outcome with a game that could open up.