Fluminense vs Bahia

A tight ceiling for a healthy attack Fluminense host Bahia in the Brasileirão, and the pick asks the visitors to stay under two goals. Here the context pulls against it more than it seems. Where the risk sits Bahia have a decent attack, running at around a goal and a half per game, and across the way stands a Fluminense that gives up its share at the back: a two-goal haul from the visitors is a real prospect. I read it around 64%, favourable but not among the safest markets. To my eye the confidence of 6 is a touch high, because Bahia's attack paired with the hosts' imperfect defence is the real risk factor.