Everton vs LillePrediction, probable lineups, recent form & season stats

A final run-out before the season, with two sides who prepared their summers at different levels. Everton have won two and lost four of their last six at home, including 1-3 with Sunderland and 3-3 with Manchester City, scoring 1.5 a game and conceding 1.5. Lille have been more solid away: 6-3 at OH Leuven, 1-0 against Monaco, 1-0 against Paris FC and 4-0 against Toulouse, at 1.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Two defences telling opposite stories Everton have kept a clean sheet in only 22% of their home games and see both teams score in 64% of them. Lille finish without conceding in 40% of their trips and have taken 1.8 points a game. It is the figure that separates the two most. What the record says The two recent meetings finished 3-0 and 0-0, pointing in opposite directions. With a sample that small and the friendly nature of the fixture, the reference points stay weak. The verdict: two goals are needed. 86% of Everton home games cleared that mark and the two combined average around three goals. Lille's 61% of away games over 1.5 and that goalless draw in the record keep the confidence down. I read it around 80%. My take: Everton always give something away at home, and Lille have the attack to use it.