Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia L.P.Prediction, probable lineups, recent form & season stats

Estudiantes La Plata score 1.3 a game at home and concede 0.7, with only 37% of those matches passing two goals, 16% seeing both teams score and a clean sheet in 46% of them. Gimnasia La Plata produce 1.2 a trip on the road and concede 1.1, with four wins in their last six. The six previous meetings finished 0-0, 0-1, 2-0, 1-1, 4-1 and 0-0. The verdict: the ceiling is three goals. Five of the six recent meetings stayed inside three, including two goalless draws, and the two combined average around 2.4 a game. That 4-1 is the exception. I read it around 85%. My take: a La Plata derby, tense and with very few goals expected.