Elfsborg vs Sirius

The leaders away against a solid defence Elfsborg, among the tidiest sides at the back in the Swedish Allsvenskan, host the leaders Sirius, with the most prolific attack in the competition. The pick combines the visitors avoiding defeat with at least two total goals. Where the risk sits The goals side is favoured by Sirius's attacking vein and the league's high average, but Elfsborg's solidity can keep the count lower and complicate the visitors avoiding defeat away. Stacking the two legs lowers the overall probability: I read it around 54%, barely more than a coin flip. The confidence of 6 looks in line with the uncertainty of the away result against a defence this careful.