Deportes Tolima vs Ind. del VallePrediction, probable lineups, recent form & season stats

Deportes Tolima host Independiente del Valle in a last-16 tie that pits the competition best home defence against the side that won its group. A fortress in Ibague In five home Libertadores games Tolima conceded one goal in total, with four clean sheets out of five. The scorelines speak for themselves: 3-0, 3-0, 0-0, 2-0 and 0-1. None of those matches passed three goals. The visitors travel less well Independiente del Valle topped the group with thirteen points, but away from Quito the level drops: three trips with a goal a game on average and two outings without scoring at all, including a goalless draw in Rosario. The verdict: the ask is to stay under four goals in total. Tolima home defensive record is the best in the competition and the visitors have scored sparingly on the road, even if their domestic league shows a side used to taking two and a half points a game. My take: a positional game with very little space, the kind of tie decided from a set piece. I place it around 83%.