Dalvik/Reynir vs Fjolnir

Home advantage paired with a goal-heavy league Dalvik/Reynir, an upper-table side in the Icelandic 2. deild karla, host a Fjolnir of eventful games. The pick combines a home win with at least two total goals. Where the risk sits The goals leg is almost a formality: in a league of around four goals a game, a match under two is close to unthinkable. The knot is the home win: Dalvik start slightly favoured, but Fjolnir have a biting attack and can hold their own. Stacking the two legs lowers the overall probability: I read it around 52%, barely more than a coin flip. To my eye the confidence of 6 is slightly high for a combo whose real unknown is the outright result.