Bristol City vs MillwallPrediction, probable lineups, recent form & season stats

The Championship is back, opening with two sides who finished last season very differently. Bristol City scored 1.1 a game at home while conceding 1.7, with only 43% of those matches passing two goals and 33% seeing both teams score. Their last six at home describe an uneven run: 2-0 against Stoke, 2-4 with Norwich, 1-0 against Sheffield United, then three straight defeats. Millwall and the defence that travels better The most solid figure in this fixture is the visitors' away record: twelve trips at 0.7 goals conceded, a clean sheet in 41% of them and 2.1 points taken per game. Their last six on the road read 0-0 at Hull, 1-1 at Leicester, 3-1 at Stoke, 0-0 at West Bromwich, 2-1 at Middlesbrough and 1-1 at Ipswich: only one passed three goals in total. A head-to-head full of short games The six previous meetings finished 2-1, 0-1, 0-2, 4-3, 0-1 and 0-1. Five times out of six the total stayed inside three goals, and the one exception, that 4-3, stands alone. Adding their current form the two sit around 2.5 goals a game combined. The verdict: the ceiling is three goals. Defence is the strength of both, with Millwall conceding under a goal a trip and Bristol City passing two goals at home in fewer than half their matches. As this is matchday one, last season's reference points deserve the usual caution. I read it around 76%. My take: a cagey game between two sides who know each other, settled by one moment.