Borussia Dortmund vs RomaPrediction, probable lineups, recent form & season stats

A final test before the season, with two sides arriving from a high-level pre-season. Borussia Dortmund score 2.4 a game at home and concede 1.1, with 91% of those matches over 1.5 and 2.3 points taken: their last six brought 3-2 against Eintracht, 4-0 against Freiburg and 3-2 against Hamburg. Roma have swung a lot away from home: 4-1 at Newport, 2-0 against Hellas Verona and 3-2 against Parma, but also 0-3 with Brighton and 1-4 with Cardiff. Two attacks that produce Dortmund have been blanked in only 16% of their home games, Roma in 17% of their trips. Adding the two together gives over four goals a game, with defences conceding 1.1 and 1.8 respectively. Why the ceiling matters The call asks for at least two goals and no more than six. The first condition is backed by 91% of Dortmund home games clearing 1.5; the second deserves a look, because both have already produced four and five-goal games this summer. There is no head-to-head between the two. The verdict: between two and six goals in total. Both averages sit comfortably inside the range and in a friendly the half-time changes cut the risk of a rout. The nature of the test is why the confidence stays contained. I read it around 84%. My take: two sides who play forward, the count should move early.