Real Madrid 2-1 Inter Milan: result, goals and the numbers behind a game Inter controlled
Mbappe and Valverde in the first half, Carlos Augusto on 77. Inter Milan finished with 64% possession and 21 shots, Real Madrid with nine big chances to four. And one number explains the rest.
Real Madrid beat Inter Milan 2-1 at the Bernabeu on the opening matchday of the Champions League. The numbers say something odd: Inter Milan did almost everything that usually wins a football match, and lost it.
The goals: Kylian Mbappe on 14 minutes, Federico Valverde on 23, Carlos Augusto on 77.
Inter Milan had the ball
Possession finished Inter Milan 64%, Real Madrid 36%. Passes 621 to 352. Entries into the final third 53 to 27. Touches in the opposition box 57 to 37. Corners 11 to 4. Shots 21 to 16.
On every measure of who spent the evening in the other side's half, Inter Milan won, often heavily. And they lost.
Real Madrid had the chances
Here the picture inverts. Big chances: nine for Real Madrid, four for Inter Milan. Expected goals 2.91 to 1.83. Expected goals on target, which weighs the quality of the finish, 1.72 to 0.88.
This was not a smash and grab. Real had less of the ball and created more than half of the night's dangerous moments. They also wasted seven of them, which is why Inter Milan stayed alive to the end.
The number that explains the game
Errors leading to a goal: two for Inter Milan, none for Real Madrid.
Both Real goals come from there, not from a move that took the Inter defence apart. Inside twenty-five minutes Inter Milan were two down, and from then on they played the game the numbers describe: plenty of the ball, plenty of territory, few real openings.
The goalkeepers, and the woodwork
Thibaut Courtois made seven saves, three of them logged as decisive. At the other end the Inter Milan keeper made six, two decisive. Both sides hit the woodwork once.
Inter Milan's goal came on 77 minutes through Carlos Augusto, set up by Lautaro Martinez. They pushed late, but the big-chance count barely moved again.
How our call went
On this game we had over 1.5 goals, confidence 7 out of 10. Three arrived: correct.
Across Tuesday's six games, four of our calls came in. The two that missed were AEK Athens against LASK, which finished 1-0 when we expected at least two goals, and Lille against Betis, which finished 2-3 when we expected no more than four.
Upcoming games, with predicted lineups and our calls, are on the Champions League page. The record of our settled calls is in the results history, and the individual calls are in player predictions.
