Portugal vs Wales prediction and predicted line-ups: Jorge Jesus begins with Ronaldo available. Nations League

Nations League holders Portugal begin their defence with a new record on the bench: on Thursday 24 September Jorge Jesus, 72, becomes the oldest head coach in the history of the Portuguese national team when he takes charge for the first time, against Craig Bellamy's Wales. Jesus was appointed on 10 July after Roberto Martínez resigned following the World Cup last-16 defeat by Spain. Wales lost their World Cup play-off semi-final to Bosnia and Herzegovina on penalties and are four games without a win.

Portugal vs Wales: kick-off time and venue

Portugal vs Wales kicks off at 19:45 UK time (20:45 CEST) on Thursday 24 September at the Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon, which holds 52,707 according to UEFA; it is also 19:45 in Lisbon. It is Group A4 of League A in the Nations League, with Norway and Denmark, who meet in Oslo at the same time: for that game, our call is at least two goals, confidence 7 out of 10. The top two reach the quarter-finals in March 2027, while the bottom side goes down to League B or into a play-off, and third place can also mean a play-off. The referee is Lithuania's Donatas Rumšas, 37, who took charge of Portugal's 5-1 win over Poland in November 2024; Germany's Sören Storks is on VAR and the Italian Gianluca Rocchi is the referee observer.

Team news

Jesus had all 25 players available on Tuesday 22 September, Cristiano Ronaldo included. There are four new faces in the squad: uncapped Benfica goalkeeper Samuel Soares, Lazio's Nuno Tavares, Benfica's João Palhinha and Borussia Dortmund's Fábio Silva, who has 4 goals in 6 games for his club and is called up for the first time. The Portuguese press consider the four newcomers unlikely to start.

Wales are without both play-off centre-backs, Joe Rodon and Dylan Lawlor, and on Monday 21 September they also lost Leeds' Harry Wilson, Wrexham's Nathan Broadhead and first-choice goalkeeper Karl Darlow of Manchester United, with David Cornell, Charlie Savage and Joe Taylor coming in. There had been no further withdrawals by Wednesday 23 September. Captain Ben Davies is back after a long ankle injury. Midfielder Jordan James said on 21 September: “You can't count us out. We've got a puncher's chance at the end of the day and we're going there to sort of cause an upset.”

Portugal vs Wales predicted line-ups

Neither side has an XI that holds up across two predictions. On 18 September Jesus ruled out using João Félix on the wing: “Comigo não é jogador para jogar numa ala” (With me he is not a winger); he sees him as a second striker or a centre-forward. The only full Portugal prediction, to be treated with caution, is a 4-2-3-1 of Diogo Costa; Cancelo, Rúben Dias, Renato Veiga, Nuno Mendes; Rúben Neves, Vitinha; Pedro Neto, Bruno Fernandes, Félix; Ronaldo. A 4-4-2 with Félix alongside Ronaldo remains an option.

Wales also have just one full prediction going round, again to be treated with caution, which takes the withdrawals into account: Danny Ward; Neco Williams, Cabango, Ben Davies, DaSilva; Ampadu, Jordan James; Brooks, Sorba Thomas, Daniel James; Brennan Johnson. The official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

Head-to-head and form

Portugal and Wales have met twice: Portugal won a friendly 3-0 in Chaves on 2 June 2000 and the Euro 2016 semi-final 2-0 in Lyon on 6 July, with goals from Ronaldo and Nani. Thursday's game is only their second competitive meeting, and Ronaldo, now 41 with 146 international goals, is the only player from that semi-final still playing.

At the World Cup Portugal drew 1-1 with DR Congo, beat Uzbekistan 5-0, drew 0-0 with Colombia, knocked out Croatia 2-1 in the round of 32 and lost 1-0 to Spain in the last 16 on 6 July. Wales, back in League A after winning their League B group in 2024, beat Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein 1-0 and North Macedonia 7-1 in their last World Cup qualifiers, and lost 4-2 at home to Belgium. They have not won since that 7-1 on 18 November 2025: a 1-1 draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina and defeat on penalties in Cardiff on 26 March, then friendly draws with Northern Ireland and Ghana, both 1-1, and a 2-1 defeat by Romania in Bucharest.

Our Portugal vs Wales prediction

Our call is no more than four goals, confidence 6 out of 10. Four of Portugal's five World Cup games finished with four goals or fewer, the two previous meetings produced three goals and two, and none of Wales's four games in 2026 had more than three. Portugal's squad includes three Serie A players, Lazio's Nuno Tavares, Juventus's Francisco Conceição and AC Milan's Gonçalo Ramos, as well as Rafael Leão, now at Galatasaray. The rest of the round is in our matchday one preview.

Every game with our calls is on the Nations League page. The record of settled calls is in the results history, and our calls on individual players are in player predictions.