Lazio against Milan: six league games between them, none past three goals. Our call
Saturday 12 September at 18:00 in Rome. Lazio have won three from three while scoring four goals in total, Milan are unbeaten on five scored and two conceded. How they arrive, the number that settles the read, and our call with its confidence.
Lazio host Milan on Saturday 12 September at 18:00 on the fourth matchday of Serie A. Two sides that have started well, and started tight: across six league games between them, not one has reached four goals.
How they arrive
Lazio: 3th, 9 points from 3 games (3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost), 4 goals scored and 1 conceded.
07/09, win away against Udinese, 2-1 (Serie A)
30/08, win at home against Genoa, 1-0 (Serie A)
24/08, win away against Bologna, 1-0 (Serie A)
16/08, loss at home against Mantova, 0-2 (the Italian Cup)
Milan: 5th, 7 points from 3 games (2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost), 5 goals scored and 2 conceded.
06/09, draw away against Juventus, 1-1 (Serie A)
28/08, win at home against Venezia, 2-0 (Serie A)
23/08, win away against Torino, 2-1 (Serie A)
The number that matters
Lazio have won all three league games while scoring four goals in total and conceding one: 2-1 at Udinese, 1-0 against Genoa, 1-0 at Bologna. Milan are on five scored and two conceded, the 1-1 at Juventus closing an unbeaten start.
Put together, the six league games of the two sides produced 3, 1, 1, 2, 2 and 3 goals. Not one reached four. That is the kind of context that settles the read on its own.
The single crack in the home side's run sits outside the league: on 16 August, in the Italian Cup, Lazio lost 0-2 at home to Mantova.
Our call
On Lazio against Milan our call is under 3.5 goals, confidence 6 out of 10. That is not a read on the names, it is a read on how both sides are playing right now.
The line-ups
Confirmed line-ups land an hour before kick-off. Until then what circulates are predictions, and on this game the versions do not agree: we would rather say so than pick one at random.
Every game of the round with our calls is on the Serie A page. The record of settled calls is in the results history, and the individual ones are in player predictions.
