LaLiga matchday 3 predictions: how every game of the weekend will end
Alaves are top of LaLiga and the two Basque giants are bottom with nothing. Eight games are left until Monday night: here is our call on each one, with odds, confidence and every player pick on the site.
Matchday three of LaLiga opened on Friday night and closes on Monday at the Camp Nou. In between there are eight games and a table that already looks upside down. Below you will find our analysts' call on every fixture, with the odds and the confidence level, plus all the player picks published on the site.
Alaves lead LaLiga
It is not a typo: Deportivo Alaves sit top of the table with seven points from three games, one goal conceded in total, after beating Villarreal 1-0 on Friday night. In the other Friday game Racing Santander, back in the top flight after fourteen years, beat Elche 3-2 in front of 22,496 people, with a Zabiri hat-trick completed inside 36 minutes and an Elche comeback that arrived too late. Our two calls split: the Under on Alaves-Villarreal was comfortable, the one on Racing-Elche went down by a single goal, with five in a game we read as a maximum of four.
A table that reads strangely
Barcelona are second on six points from two games, and they have not conceded a single goal yet: seven scored, none against. Real Madrid and Sevilla are level with them on maximum points, and so are Betis. The strangest part is at the other end: Athletic Club and Real Sociedad, the two Basque giants, are nineteenth and twentieth with zero points and five goals conceded each. Both play this weekend, and both are away from the comfort of a win: Real Sociedad host Espanyol on Saturday, Athletic go to Celta Vigo on Sunday.
What the midweek round left us
The catch-up fixtures of Tuesday to Thursday reshaped the top: Real Madrid beat Real Sociedad 4-1, Barcelona won 2-0 against Athletic, Osasuna won 2-1 at Celta and Betis took the points at the Mestalla with a 1-0 over Valencia. Our record across those four games was three out of four: the only one that got away was the call on goals in Valencia-Betis, settled by a single strike.
The stories of the week
The window closes on Tuesday night and the loudest story in Spain has a name: Julián Álvarez. Barcelona's president phoned Atlético directly to push their offer, Atlético replied that they are not selling because they have no replacement, and the Argentine has not trained with the squad since Wednesday. Simeone confirmed on Friday that Álvarez will not play at Sevilla, saying the club has been firm and clear about what happened. With Alexander Sørloth also unavailable and Robin Le Normand suspended after a red card, Atlético travel to the Sánchez Pizjuán missing both centre-forwards and a first-choice defender.
Around that, the injury lists are long. Real Madrid are still without Militão, Mendy and Rodrygo, the last of them out until late autumn, with Endrick a doubt for Sunday. Barcelona miss Frenkie de Jong and Gavi. Valencia go to Riazor without Sergi Canós and Diego López, both out until December with cruciate injuries. Espanyol are without the suspended Leandro Cabrera. And Athletic arrive in Vigo with Edin Terzic, who replaced Ernesto Valverde in the summer, still looking for his first league point: the former Borussia Dortmund coach is one of several new faces on Spanish benches this summer, alongside Íñigo Pérez at Villarreal and Beñat San José at Rayo.
How the eight games will end: our predictions
The grid is mixed this time, with three calls on goals and five on containment, and two of them are worth a second look before you read the table: in both Real Sociedad-Espanyol and Celta-Athletic our analysts back the home side to score, which is a bolder statement than it sounds given that neither Real Sociedad nor Celta has managed more than one goal in two games.
Match | When | Our prediction | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sat 29, 17:00 | Under 4.5 Goals | 1.13 | 7/10 | |
Sat 29, 19:00 | Home Over 0.5 Goals | 1.18 | 7/10 | |
Sat 29, 21:30 | Under 4.5 Goals | 1.13 | 7/10 | |
Sun 30, 17:00 | Over 1.5 Goals | 1.11 | 7/10 | |
Sun 30, 19:30 | Under 3.5 Goals | 1.23 | 6/10 | |
Sun 30, 21:30 | Home Over 0.5 Goals | 1.29 | 6/10 | |
Mon 31, 19:30 | Under 3.5 Goals | 1.15 | 6/10 | |
Mon 31, 21:30 | Over 1.5 Goals | 1.12 | 6/10 |
The tightest number of the round is Osasuna vs Getafe, where two of the meanest defences in the division meet with three goals conceded between them in four games. The biggest game is at the Sanchez Pizjuan, where a Sevilla side with a perfect record host Atletico Madrid: our reading there is containment, not fireworks.
The player picks for the round
Seven player picks are live across six of the eight games.
Player | Team | Pick | Confidence | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Betis | Shot (2+) | 5/10 | Levante-Betis | |
Espanyol | Foul Committed (1+) | 7/10 | Real Sociedad-Espanyol | |
Atletico Madrid | Shot (2+) | 5/10 | Sevilla-Atletico | |
Real Madrid | Shot on Target (2+) | 6/10 | Real Madrid-Malaga | |
Real Madrid | Shot (3+) | 6/10 | Real Madrid-Malaga | |
Valencia | Tackle (1+) | 7/10 | Deportivo-Valencia | |
Celta Vigo | To Be Fouled (1+) | 6/10 | Celta-Athletic |
The two strongest, both at 7 out of 10, have nothing to do with goals: Jon Aramburu to commit a foul and G. Rodriguez to make a tackle, the kind of pick that lives on a player's role rather than his finishing. The most attractive pair for a Sunday afternoon is the Real Madrid one, with Kylian Mbappe asked for two shots on target and Vinicius Junior for three attempts against a promoted side. Osasuna-Getafe and Barcelona-Rayo have no player picks yet: they usually go live in the 48 hours before kick-off.
Where to follow it all
Every prediction stays updated until kick-off on our LaLiga page, while goalscorers, shots, assists and cards for every player are in the Player Predictions section. And the usual reminder, which the Racing game just underlined: wait for the confirmed line-ups, because a single change up front can move a total by one goal, and one goal is all it takes.
