Iceland vs Estonia prediction and predicted line-ups: Aron Gunnarsson begins his last tournament. Nations League

Aron Gunnarsson is starting his last tournament with Iceland. The 37-year-old, who has 110 caps and captained his country at Euro 2016 and the 2018 World Cup, announced it on Instagram on Tuesday 22 September: “Þjóðadeildin þetta haustið verður mitt síðasta mót í treyjunni bláu” (This autumn's Nations League will be my last tournament in the blue shirt). The group runs until November, and Iceland's campaign opens in Reykjavík on Saturday 26 September against Estonia, the first competitive meeting between the two nations.

Iceland vs Estonia: kick-off time and venue

Iceland vs Estonia kicks off at 17:00 UK time (18:00 CEST, 16:00 local time) on Saturday 26 September at the Laugardalsvöllur in Reykjavík. It is Group C4, League C, in the Nations League, with Bulgaria and Luxembourg: the winners go up to League B and the runners-up play off against a League B side.

Team news

Arnar Gunnlaugsson has lost his first-choice goalkeeper of recent months, Midtjylland's Elías Rafn Ólafsson, and called up Anton Ari Einarsson of Breiðablik. Südtirol's Bjarki Steinn Bjarkason has broken a foot and arrived at the camp on crutches: he faces about ten weeks out. Sverrir Ingi Ingason, with a cruciate injury, Kristian Nökkvi Hlynsson and Hjörtur Hermannsson are also missing, which leaves the defence short: Guðlaugur Victor Pálsson is the only specialist right-back left.

Jürgen Henn's Estonia are short up front. Henri Anier, who has 104 caps and 23 goals, was injured in a league game on Saturday 19 September and has been replaced by a centre-back, Joonas Tamm. Rauno Sappinen, Marten-Chris Paalberg and Tony Varjund were already missing.

Iceland vs Estonia predicted line-ups

Neither XI holds up: no preview with a line-up has appeared. With Elías Rafn out, nobody has said whether Brentford's Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson or Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson of FC Copenhagen will take the gloves. Pálsson should play at right-back; in the middle Hannover's Stefán Teitur Þórðarson is competing with Daníel Leó Grétarsson, Gunnarsson and Hörður Björgvin Magnússon. There is no word on the attack, between Albert Guðmundsson, Orri Steinn Óskarsson and Andri Lucas Guðjohnsen. For Estonia the fixed points are Werder Bremen goalkeeper Karl Jakob Hein and captain Karol Mets; up front Henn will choose from Alex Matthias Tamm, Mattias Männilaan and Karel Mustmaa. The official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

Head-to-head and form

The seven previous meetings were all friendlies: three Iceland wins, three draws and one Estonia win, in 2002. The last three were drawn, most recently 1-1 in the Algarve on 8 January 2023, with a 90th-minute penalty from Andri Lucas Guðjohnsen. Iceland finished third in their World Cup qualifying group: at home they lost 5-3 to Ukraine and drew 2-2 with France, then won 2-0 in Azerbaijan and lost 2-0 to Ukraine; they have played five friendlies in 2026 without a win. The squad includes Lazio's Albert Guðmundsson, Genoa's Mikael Egill Ellertsson and Gylfi Sigurðsson, Iceland's all-time top scorer with 28 goals. Estonia finished fourth in their qualifying group with a single win, and lost 4-1 in Norway in their last competitive game; against Italy they had lost 5-0 and 3-1. In June they won the Baltic Cup for the second year running.

Our Iceland vs Estonia prediction

Our call is at least two goals, confidence 6 out of 10. Iceland's last five competitive games produced 19 goals, never fewer than two, and Estonia conceded 14 in their last five. Against that, Estonia's attack is without Anier and the head-to-head is low-scoring, with 12 goals in seven games. The whole round is in our matchday one preview.

Every game with our calls is on the Nations League page. The record of settled calls is in the results history, and our calls on individual players are in player predictions.